On the evidence of a single coin toss
Say that you bump into me at the coffee shop. After saying hello, I hand you a coin and claim that it’s special: when flipped it always comes up heads. You inspect it and say that it looks like a...
View ArticleMore on the evidence of a single coin toss
Recently, I asked how much evidence was contained in a single coin toss:After seeing the outcome of this single coin toss [which came up heads], how much more should you believe my claim that the coin...
View ArticleThe Bayesian meets Monty Hall
The Monty Hall Problem is a probability-theory classic. Here’s how it goes.You are on Monty’s game show, trying to find a car hidden behind one of three doors. Monty knows which one; you don’t. He asks...
View ArticleTest like you're betting for your life
In software, as in life, every problem you solve is actually part of a larger problem, an optimization problem in which you are trying to squeeze as much as you can from a single scarce resource:...
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